Ranking prospects is a very subjective thing. What one scout might like, another scout might not. Some look at analytics to make their rankings, others use seeing the players in person. But it’s a guarantee that different writers will have differences.
But that doesn’t mean we can’t try to throw all of our rankings in a blender and see how they average out, right?
Now that all of the major lists have been completed and posted, I’ve taken the time to average out 10 prospect lists about the San Francisco Giants farm system, and boy, there are some interesting similarities and differences.
The process here is pretty simple. I added up what number a prospect was on the various lists, divide by the number of lists that player appeared on, and that’s their average ranking.
Now, this isn’t a perfect system. After all, each list is a different length. Keith Law only had 20 prospects on his list, while two lists (Roger’s and Giants 1500’s) went up to 50. But there’s no equivalent to rank all the prospects that Law, for instance, didn’t rank, even though that would’ve probably ended up with some guys needing to be ranked lower. But, we’re trying to keep it simple. Where there were ties, the tiebreaker was how many lists a name appeared on.
The 10 lists used are listed below. Click on any name to be directed to the appropriate page, some may require subscriptions:
- Giant Futures (i.e. mine)
- Roger Munter
- Melissa Lockard (The Athletic)
- Baseball America
- MLB Pipeline
- Fangraphs
- Giants 1500
- Keith Law (The Athletic)
- Wrenzie (via Around The Foghorn)
- McCovey Chronicles Community Prospect Poll
Here’s some of the most interesting notes from what I saw.
There were 60 total prospects named overall
I have to admit, some of the names I did not expect to see. But with two lists going to 50, it’s not surprising at the back end they had different views of different back-end guys.
Marco Luciano was the closest to unanimous of any player…except for one list
I thought there might be someone who would go against the grain and not have Marco Luciano as their top player in the system, and sure enough, one person out of ten did not – Wrenzie, writing for Around the Foghorn. But who he had as #1 was an even bigger surprise.
The highest-ranked player to not make every list was Camilo Doval
Doval only made seven of the ten lists, and finished with a 13.29 average, the 13th highest on the list. There might be a reason for him being on so few lists, as some writers may not have considered him still a “prospect”, since he finished the year on the big league roster in a pretty important role. Many writers use the MLB minimum innings for rookie eligibility to determine this status, which is 50 IP. Doval had 27.0 innings. Some may also use the number of days on the 26-man roster ahead of September 1st, with is 45 days, though I don’t believe Doval hit that number. For whatever reason, three lists left Doval off, including the official MLB Pipeline. Since most writers don’t explicitly discuss their eligibility criteria, it’s impossible to know why Doval missed on three lists.
The highest-ranked player other than Doval to not make every list was Will Wilson
The trade-acquired first round pick had a pretty mixed season, getting promoted while not really performing that well overall in 2021. That led to him appearing on just eight lists, ending up with a 18.25 average ranking, and the 16th spot on this list.
The highest-ranked player to appear on only one list was Sam Delaplane
Ranked #25 by Fangraphs, Delaplane was traded to the Giants in May of 2021 from Seattle, but spent the season recovering from Tommy John surgery, and signed back with the Giants as a free agent over the offseason. Delaplane has a career 2.29 ERA over parts of three seasons. Did everyone else overlook this acquisition who has yet to take the field for the Giants? Maybe. The one vote puts him at the 28th spot on this averaged list, with the same score as Gregory Santos…but obviously, Santos gets slotted higher by way of the tiebreaker.
The lowest-ranked player to appear on every list was Sean Hjelle
Hjelle’s average score was 22.50. Predictably, I had Hjelle highest at #13 overall, but his lowest ranking was #38 by Giants 1500. It’s not surprising that a relative high floor but low ceiling guy could get such varied rankings. Hjelle ends up at #22 overall on the list, seven spots behind the next lowest guy to appear on every list: Casey Schmitt at #15 (16.10 average).
The lowest-ranked player to appear on more than one list was Ghordy Santos
The young infielder ended up at #45 on Roger’s list, and #44 on Giants 1500, giving him an average score of 44.50 and putting him 57th overall on the list.
Both #50 picks showed up on more than one list
You would think that the last ranked guys would be rare, but no. Diego Velasquez was Roger’s #50, but he also showed up….at #23 on Baseball America’s list! Wow. Meanwhile, Giants 1500’s #50 pick showed up on 7 lists, and is a very familiar name: Seth Corry. Corry’s average was 24.86, making him the #26 prospect on the list, but he obviously took a big hit thanks to that one ranking.
So, without further ado, here’s the list of fully averaged out scores!
#1 – Marco Luciano – 1.10 – 10 Lists
Lowest: #2, Wrenzie/ATF – Highest: #1, everyone else
#2 – Luis Matos – 2.50 – 10 Lists
Highest: #2, 5 lists – Lowest: #3, 5 lists
#3 – Joey Bart – 3.40 – 10 Lists
Highest: #2, 4 lists – Lowest: #5, Roger & Fangraphs
#4 – Kyle Harrison – 3.80 – 10 Lists
Highest: #1, Wrenzie/ATF – Lowest: #5, Baseball America, Keith Law and MCC Community
#5 – Heliot Ramos – 4.90 – 10 Lists
Highest: #3, Keith Law – Lowest: #6, Roger, The Athletic, MLB Pipeline
#6 – Will Bednar – 6.70 – 10 Lists
Highest: #5, The Athletic & MLB Pipeline – Lowest: #9, Fangraphs
#7 – Jairo Pomares – 7.30 – 10 Lists
Highest: #4, Roger – Lowest: #11, Keith Law
#8 – Aeverson Arteaga – 9.70 – 10 Lists
Highest: #8, Giant Futures, Giants 1500, Wrenzie/ATF – Lowest: #12, MCC Community & Fangraphs
#9 – Patrick Bailey – 10.40 – 10 Lists
Highest: #3, Fangraphs – Lowest: #20, Wrenzie/ATF
#10 – Matt Mikulski – 11.50 – 10 Lists
Highest: #7, Baseball America – Lowest: #16, Fangraphs
#11 – Hunter Bishop – 12.50 – 10 Lists
Highest: #8, Keith Law & Fangraphs – Lowest: #29, Wrenzie/ATF
#12 – Ryan Murphy – 12.80 – 10 Lists
Highest: #8, Roger – Lowest: #21, Fangraphs
#13 – Camilo Doval – 13.29 – 7 Lists
Highest: #6, MCC Community – Lowest: #23, The Athletic
#14 – Nick Swiney – 15.80 – 10 Lists
Highest: #10, Giant Futures – #25, Giants 1500
#15 – Casey Schmitt – 16.10 – 10 Lists
Highest: #9 – Wrenzie/ATF – Lowest: #24, Giant Futures & MCC Community
#16 – Will Wilson – 18.25 – 8 Lists
Highest: #14, Baseball America – Lowest: #26, Roger
#17 – R.J. Dabovich – 18.75 – 8 Lists
Highest: #16, MCC Community – Lowest: #22, Roger and Giants 1500
#18 – Diego Rincones – 20.14 – 7 Lists
Highest: #14, Roger – Lowest: #23, Giant Futures
#19 – Randy Rodriguez – 21.00 – 8 Lists
Highest: #13, MLB Pipeline – Lowest: #30, The Athletic
#20 – Ricardo Genovés – 21.33 – 9 Lists
Highest: #15, Giant Futures – Lowest: #30, MLB Pipeline
#21 – Adrian Sugastey – 22.00 – 8 Lists
Highest: #12, Wrenzie/ATF – Lowest: #30, Roger
#22 – Sean Hjelle – 22.50 – 10 Lists
Highest: #13, Giant Futures – Lowest: #30, MCC Community
#23 – Kervin Castro – 22.56 – 9 Lists
Highest: #18, Baseball America – Lowest: #26, Roger, MCC Community & Fangraphs
#24 – Ryan Reckley – 22.60 – 5 Lists
Highest: #11, MCC Community – Lowest: #34, Giant Futures
#25 – David Villar – 24.00 – 6 Lists
Highest: #16, Roger – Lowest: #33, Baseball America
#26 – Seth Corry – 24.86 – 7 Lists
Highest: #11, The Athletic – Lowest: #50, Giants 1500
#27 – Gregory Santos – 25.00 – 7 Lists
Highest: #15, MLB Pipeline – Lowest: #33, Roger
#28 – Sam Delaplane – 25.00 – 1 List
Only: #25, Fangraphs
#29 – Carson Ragsdale – 25.56 – 9 Lists
Highest: #13, Keith Law – Lowest: #36, MCC Community
#30 – Luis Toribio – 26.13 – 8 Lists
Highest: #11, Fangraphs – Lowest: #39, MCC Community
#31 – Manuel Mercedes – 27.00 – 8 Lists
#32 – Brett Auerbach – 27.38 – 8 Lists
#33 – Prelander Berroa – 27.57 – 7 Lists
#34 – Ismael Munguia – 28.17 – 6 Lists
#35 – Grant McCray – 29.20 – 5 Lists
#36 – Blake Rivera – 30.00 – 1 List
#37 – Eric Silva – 30.88 – 8 Lists
#38 – Alexander Suarez – 31.00 – 5 Lists
#39 – Chris Wright – 31.20 – 5 Lists
#40 – Tristan Beck – 32.00 – 3 Lists
#41 – Rohan Handa – 32.00 – 1 List
#42 – Michael Plassmeyer – 33.00 – 1 List
#43 – Tyler Fitzgerald – 35.67 – 6 Lists
#44 – Juan Perez – 36.00 – 1 List
#45 – Esmerlin Vinicio – 36.50 – 4 Lists
#46 – Diego Velasquez – 36.50 – 2 Lists
#47 – Jimmy Glowenke – 36.60 – 5 Lists
#48 – Kai-Wei Teng – 38.00 – 4 Lists
#49 – Armani Smith – 38.33 – 3 Lists
#50 – Mason Black – 39.00 – 2 Lists
#51 – Simon Whiteman – 39.00 – 2 Lists
#52 – Dennys Riera – 39.00 – 1 List
#53 – Sean Roby – 39.50 – 2 Lists
#54 – Cole Waites – 41.75 – 4 Lists
#55 – Trevor McDonald – 42.00 – 2 Lists
#56 – Anthony Rodriguez – 43.00 – 1 List
#57 – Ghordy Santos – 44.50 – 2 Lists
#58 – Victor Bericoto – 45.00 – 1 List
#59 – Javier Francisco – 48.00 – 1 List
#60 – Erick Arosmena – 49.00 – 1 List
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