Now that the trade deadline has past and all the draft picks have been signed, it’s my turn to offer a mid-season reranking of the Top 30 San Francisco Giants Prospects.
There’s quite a bit of change here, perhaps more than you’d get in most mid-season rerankings. That’s because, of course, 2020 happened. With a full year missed of minor league baseball, delayed debuts of 2020 draft picks and 2019 international signings, and the ways all these affected players, most of us doing rankings were going in with a lot more ambiguity before the season. Well, now a lot has shaken out.
You’ll find that, compared to others, I tend not to too-highly insert draft picks into my rankings beyond the first round. That influenced this list in two ways: Not only do I not have as many of the 2021 draftees in my list as others, the 2020 draftees were a little off in my preseason list.
In all, 12 names that were on my preseason list are no longer on this one. Two came off due to trades (Alexander Canario, Conner Cannon), and one who would’ve made the list was part of those trades (Caleb Killian). The others fell off for different reasons. Sometimes it was injury issues (Tristan Beck, Blake Rivera), one partially due to suspension (Gregory Santos), some from underperforming (former #7 Seth Corry was the highest ranked player to fall off the list), and some just got shuffled off at the back end due to others coming up.
So here is the list! With most of these names, you can click on the names to see their preseason prospect report, but not every player has one.
#1 – Marco Luciano
No change at the top, which is likely no surprise. Luciano has been challenged (as expected), and continues to show some trouble hitting for average, but the power is obviously there. The biggest mid-season note is his defense, as he had 15 errors in 60 games at San Jose, and already has two in 10 games at Eugene. This begs some question about his future at shortstop, as opposed to somewhere else, be it third or the outfield.
#2 – Joey Bart
Yes, he still strikes out. And he’s had some minor injuries and his season has been interrupted with brief call ups. But Bart has a .915 OPS in Triple-A, with 10 home runs in 50 games. He’s also been praised for his strong arm from behind the plate. The biggest question is with Buster Posey, as the former MVP has had a career resurgence. And despite all that talk in 2020, neither Posey nor Bart has taken a single inning at first base.
#3 – Heliot Ramos
A horrendous midseason slump for Ramos has really affected his numbers, but as he began to come out of it, he got a promotion to Triple-A, where he has again faced some adjustment trials. That said, Ramos has still played like a future spark plug, and his power showing in spring training hasn’t been forgotten. That said, he’s holding onto third in this ranking by a nose, mostly because of his proximity to the bigs.
#4 – Luis Matos
Matos came into 2021 with some dangerous hype raising everyone’s expectations, and he started off a touch slow. But he’s been hitting for average most of the summer, has 27 doubles, a triple, and 12 home runs through 85 games, and also has 19 steals while playing an excellent center field. He’s doing everything he needs to in Low-A, and to be honest, the biggest surprise so far for him is that he hasn’t gotten a High-A shot.
#5 – Hunter Bishop
It’s getting to the point that 2021 is going to be a lost season for Bishop. He hurt his shoulder in the first week, and somehow his rehab took into early August. He’s just began to play in Low-A, where his timing is way off. But there’s no overlooking Bishop’s athletic ability and high ceiling. He really needs to have a hot final month of the season, however.
#6 – Jairo Pomares
Before the season, I worried that Pomares was a tweener, without the power to play a corner but without the defense to play center. But after a late start to the season, Pomares has been on fire, torching Low-A and in his first week at High-A. Pomares’ success gives the Giants a lot of minor league candidates in the minors.
#7 – Kyle Harrison
The Giants went cheap early in the 2020 draft and centered it around their 3rd round pick Harrison, whom they drafted out of high school. Harrison responded by bumping up his velocity, and has been striking out of opponents in San Jose. He still has some control concerns, but not as much as other top pitching prospects in the system.
#8 – Will Bednar
The Giants spent the top part of the 2021 draft going after pitching to shore up the system, and top draft pick Bednar should do just that. He comes with a good fastball and a slider/change up arsenal that the Giants coaching staff should be able to turn into a reliable starting arsenal.
#9 – Sean Hjelle
The Giants have been lacking in starting pitching prospects, but Hjelle pitching around a short injury disruption to have a good half-season at Richmond, and has been promoted to Triple-A for the second half. Hjelle doesn’t have the highest ceiling, but the big league Giants will need reinforcements soon in the starting rotation, and Hjelle should be filling that role soon.
#10 – Will Wilson
The Giants love Will Wilson. He got a ton of spring training time, and has been playing all over the infield. He wasn’t perfect in High-A, but he was showing off a line drive stroke, but has struggled in a quick push to Double-A. But the faith the Giants have in him informs my ranking him here, as he’s a player Zaidi and Kepler will love to use.
#11 – Aeverson Arteaga
One of the Giants’ top international signings that have gotten lost in the shuffle with the pandemic, Arteaga has had a huge start to his first pro season. Although he’s cooled off with the bat, he’s still hitting .306 with some power, and he plays an excellent defensive shortstop. It’s very possible he might be the top Giants true shortstop prospect.
#12 – Sammy Long
With Long’s free agency pickup, his spring training hype and a very shuffled 2021 season with games at four levels, it’s hard to get a read on Long. He’s got major league stuff, and as a starter, he might be a top 10 guy. But the Giants keep using him in the bullpen, so he may not get the time to stretch out to be a starter that the Giants desperately could use in their farm system.
#13 – Ricardo Genovés
Genovés announced his presence in San Jose by having one of the best first months of the season, showing off his power from behind the plate. He earned a promotion to High-A Eugene, which has given him more of a challenge, but his prospect status is for real. The biggest question is if he’ll stick behind the plate with his big body, but if he does, he’s an strong catching prospect.
#14 – Patrick Bailey
Boy, it’s been a tough first season for Bailey. He started the season in Eugene, but really struggled to hit and showed a problem with strikeouts. A move down the ladder to San Jose has reinforced those strikeout problems a bit, although coming back off of an IL stint, he has, at least briefly, shown his power potential again.
#15 – Luis Toribio
Toribio came into 2021 touted as one of the best pure hitters in the system, but it’s been a rough start for him in 2021. Challenges in a first pro season is obviously a thing, and he shouldn’t be discounted, but combining those rough hitting stats with an unclear defensive home, as he’s struggled at third, and that knocked Toribio down the rankings a little, at least for now.
#16 – Casey Schmitt
Schmitt was ice cold to start the season, and he’s been trying to overcome things ever since. We’re still waiting to see if Schmitt can develop the power that got him an early draft pick, but there’s been no question about his defense at third. That keeps Schmitt higher on the rankings than his offense might say.
#17 – Brett Auerbach
From undrafted to…everywhere? A catcher with 25 steals? A man without a position because he has too many? Brett Auerbach has been a versatile overachiever all season, pushing up to Eugene quickly, and just succeeding at everything he’s been asked to do. There’s always a risk of the offense being a Single-A illusion, but if he keeps it up to any reasonable degree, he’s in the right organization.
#18 – Matt Mikulski
It’s hard to place new draftees on a ranking, and I’m usually a bit more conservative (as Mikulski has earned Top 10 spots in both MLB and Baseball America rankings. The Giants got a little bit of a steal with their second round pick. But with Mikulski still being an unsettled type of pitcher, with significant reliever risk, I’m tentative on putting him higher, yet.
#19 – Camilo Doval
Doval, like teammate Gregory Santos, got rushed to the majors and struggled mightily, thanks to being put on the 40-man roster early to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. And he’s struggled with his control in Sacramento, though with moments of domination. However, Doval’s unusual throwing angle gives him immense deception, and he should be able to turn that into becoming an effective reliever…at least, with enough time to develop.
#20 – Nick Swiney
It’s been a bit of a lost season for Swiney, who suffered a concussion and missed months. But his pitches have the potential to make a starter, and when he’s been on the diamond, he’s showed it off. There are a lot of questions still to answer for Swiney, but a strong finish for him will establish him as one of the top few starter prospects the Giants have.
#21 – Ryan Murphy
Ryan Murphy was one of the tougher players to rank. He and Caleb Killian (now traded) were the two prospects who made the biggest statements early in 2021, both pitching out of their minds. Murphy is currently among the strikeout leaders in all of minor league baseball, and has been on top of that list at times. Also impressive is that after dominating Low-A, he got a promotion and has continued to dominate. Murphy’s raw stuff isn’t eye-popping, but it’s hard to ignore those numbers. Give me a second season like this, and he’s top 10 material.
#22 – Manuel Mercedes
Mercedes was part of the 2019 international class that missed its expected debut in 2020, and he is raw stuff certified, with a fastball that’s already hitting 98 and at 18 years old, Mercedes could still add to it. Mercedes fits into the “hard thrower with control concerns and reliever potential” stereotype almost perfectly, but it’s worth noting that his control is a tick better so far than others in such a boat.
#23 – Carson Ragsdale
Man, another trade that was an absolute steal for Farhan Zaidi was the one that netted Ragsdale, in exchange for the somewhat unlikeable Sam Coonrod. Ragsdale is tall (6’8”) has solid velocity and an excellent curveball. He’s been part of the San Jose strikeout regime, and while he’s had days where he gets hit hard, more often than not he’s good. His control has mostly improved since mid-July, and if that holds, it’s good news.
#24 – Prelander Berroa
Another one of the Zaidi trade acquisitions, Berroa has turned in a heck of a season at San Jose. He’s turned up his strikeout stuff, going from a 9.77 K/9 to a 12.9 K/9 this season. The Giants have been limiting his innings, since he’s got a smaller stature, but Berroa is positioned to have a lot of helium going into 2022.
#25 – R.J. Dabovich
Dabovich started out the season giving up two runs in his first two games at High-A and shutting everyone down since. He’s had a few more struggles since a bump to Double-A Richmond, but overall, his strikeout stuff is clearly evident. Other rankings have eschewed Dabovich, but he’s shown potential to be one of the better relief prospects in the system.
#26 – Armani Smith
Smith came into 2021 as the obvious sleeper prospect on a loaded San Jose roster, and he wasn’t a sleeper for long. He earned a promotion to High-A after just 15 games, and while he’s faced challenges there, he’s still succeeding. Smith lacks a standout tool, but if he could tap into his power just a bit more, Smith could turn into a platoon powerhouse like LaMonte Wade, where he’s got a .457/.479/1.022 line against LHP.
#27 – Kervin Castro
Kervin Castro made the jump from Short-A all the way to Triple-A, because he was protected on the 40-man roster. While he didn’t get a disasterous MLB cameo the way fellow Rule-5-protectees Doval and Santos did, Castro has been adapting. Castro had an 18.00 ERA two games into his stint, but has whittled that down to 3.15, becoming a bulldog out of the bullpen. I think there’s time for the Giants to try and stretch him back out to starting, but Castro has a very Yusmeiro Petit feel to him.
#28 – Grant McCray
McCray is one of the best athletes in the system, and perhaps the truest center fielder defensively in the system. That gets him on the list. The big question for him is whether or not he’ll hit enough to continue to advance. He’s had little chance to, though a recent promotion to San Jose will start to challenge him. There are visions of him becoming a speedy defensive CF with the ability to cause havoc on the basepaths, so we’ll see.
#29 – Tyler Fitzgerald
While Eugene started the season as one of the most prospect-laden squads, Fitzgerald has quietly been the team’s workhorse all season. He’s played second, third, and short all season, and has continued to hit, showing some surprising pop with 18 home runs so far. Fitzgerald has the look of the versatile utility guy that a Kapler or Zaidi can move around with ease with some pop, so he gets the nod here at the back of the system to be a Matt Duffy type.
#30 – Esmerlin Vinicio
The pitcher everyone talks about out of the 2019 international signing class is Mercedes, but Esmerlin Vinicio deserves some talk as well. He’s been one of the most consistent pitchers in the ACL, not striking out a ton but holding hits down and being effective. Vinicio has control problems, and has actually walked batters at a faster rate than Mercedes, but he’s been far less hittable and that makes him stand out.
Who Just Missed?
This system is getting deeper, and there were a few names just off the 30 that I’m still thinking about, and who could climb onto it quickly.
Blake Rivera and Tristan Beck have missed most of this season, and that caused them to just fall off the list, but both have the ability to be back on it, especially if they can get into games and perform well for the end of the season.
Part of me really wanted to get Ismael Munguia, a classic overachiever and fun player, onto this list, but I just couldn’t fit him in. He’s having a solid year in High-A, but he needs to repeat it, or more likely improve on it, in Double-A to really have a shot at making it.
Heath Quinn has kind of been a forgotten man in the system, and he’s been making some noise after a delayed comeback this season. His problem is that he’s suddenly mixed in with a lot of outfield prospects, and it’ll be hard to make noise in that crowd.
Kai-Wei Teng has been an interesting case of hot and cold this season. One thing that influenced me is that when I got to see him in-person, I just haven’t seen great stuff out of him. That could be small sample size, so maybe that affected me too much, but he still is having big strikeout games and could countinue to hang around the back end of this list.
And then there’s Eric Silva, the Giants’ later round bonus baby from the 2021 draft. He showed up in other lists, but I just can’t place him. He’s getting compared to Kyle Harrison, but it’s more about the how he was drafted, not the kind of player he is. He just doesn’t feel like he has the same profile to me, and the truth is, Harrison wouldn’t have ranked as high as he did if he hadn’t added velocity to his fastball in the fall, something Silva hasn’t had the chance to do yet.
So, that’s my list. Feel free to post in the comments how wrong I am, or who I missed. Maybe I’ll change my mind in the offseason.
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